Speaking of ICE Futures: China's Economic Data Released to Boost International Financial Market Futures Benefit

Better than expected economic data, US cotton rebounded

On Friday, China announced its second-quarter GDP. Although this data shows that China's economic downturn is evident, GDP in the first half of the year hit a new low since 2009, but this alleviated concerns about a hard landing for China's economy. The international financial market was boosted on Friday, ICE Cotton's December contract once again stood above 70 cents/lb, and ended the day higher by 2.72 cents to 72.66 cents/lb. The continuation of the rebound did not change, with the trend of continuing to challenge the pressure of 75 cents/lb. However, due to the economic downturn in the euro zone, the macroeconomic side is dragging down. China and the world economy have a further downward trend. The consumption of fundamentals continues to shrink and the supply is seriously oversupply. The cotton price does not have the basis and driving force for a substantial increase. In the future, the sideways pattern will continue to extend. Focus on the pressure of 75 cents/pound.

On Friday, the ICE Futures Index closed at ICE, the main December contract remained above 70 cents/lb and short-term moving averages. The KD indicator re-formed long at the highs, and the MACD indicator continued its bullish rise and its red column grew. The rebound will continue. The December contract is expected to challenge the 75 cents/lb pressure level.

Although China's GDP data eased concerns about a hard landing of China's economy on Friday, a number of data hit a new low since the financial crisis in 2009. China's economic decline is evident, and in the face of a recession in the euro area economy, the Chinese economy will further decline in the future. . Although the market is about to enter the new year, the price of RMB 20,400/tonne will support the cotton price and domestic resources will be reduced. However, in June China imported 470,000 tons of cotton, and at the same time, there are still rumors of restocking, and there are still variables in supply. The supply of speculation is facing Certain risks. On the other hand, the shrinking export slump consumption, the downstream cotton yarn and gray fabric stocks remain high, the market's affordability to the cotton price is limited, which will constrain Zheng cotton's rebound space. Under this circumstance, the cotton price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The 1301 contract will run between 19,400 and 19,700 yuan/ton. The 19,600 yuan/ton line may increase the holding of short positions and the short-term target of 19,400 yuan/ton, if the cotton price breaks through. 19,700 yuan / ton pressure level, empty single stop from the sidelines. (Wanda ** Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

The monetary policy is expected to support the cotton price sharply higher

ICE Cotton ** rose sharply on Friday, with the December contract up 2.73 cents to close at 72.66 cents. The economic situation has dominated the cotton market. China’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 7.6%, which was in line with market expectations. Some investors worried about the worsening economic situation were at ease, but the growth rate slowed down from the same period of last year, which was lower than the 8.1% in the first quarter, which made the market anticipate that China We will continue to lower interest rates and reduce the deposit reserve ratio. Other central banks also have increased liquidity to meet expectations of a weak economic situation. These monetary policy expectations have supported the rise in the stock market and the general rebound of commodities. In addition, the U.S. cereal production area has suffered for 25 years. Since the worst drought in the world, the increase in soybean and corn prices has also supported the price of ICE cotton **, which is also used as agricultural products. ICE Cotton ** opened higher and higher, rebounded sharply, and the price broke the current sideways range of the recent ten trading days. After the trend is still expected to rise further, but there is still pressure on the upside, subject to bearish demand side, short-term gains. Space is limited, with pressure above 75 cents.

Zhengmian ** opened lower and higher on Friday, and positions slightly increased, but the volume was light, and the volume was basically the lowest since January 130 as the main contract. On the spot side, although demand remains weak, last week's cotton prices in various regions in the country stabilized compared to the previous week and rose slightly. At present, the fundamental news of the cotton market is dull. The focus of the market is on the economic situation. China's second-quarter data triggers the market's expectation of further monetary easing policies, which will support the recent cotton market prices. In addition, weather factors will also focus on the market. Due to the large-scale hail disaster, more than 50,000 acres of cotton are affected in Xinjiang. The latter period will be a critical period for the growth of cotton. Unfavorable weather factors in different regions will also affect market trends. On the whole, the current sluggish demand for cotton prices will still restrain the rebound space of cotton. Economic factors and weather factors will dominate the fluctuation of the cotton market. Zhengmian ** is unresponsive to the current supply and demand factors and will digest monetary policy. And the influence of weather factors, and follow the fluctuation of the surrounding commodities. It is expected that this week is expected to be a shock and rebound before no new bearish announcement is made.