Business Club data shows: the silk market is still looking at consumer spending

After May 25th, the already weak silk market re-emerged sharply. The spot market fell to 320,000 yuan/ton, and the main forces in September and March of next year all fell below 31 yuan/ton. In late May, the silk market seems to be returning to the low period of the new market in the beginning of the year.

The recent weakness in the reeling of the silk reel, “The price has indeed fallen, but for the purchase price, let alone RMB 42/kg, even if it is RMB 34/kg, we are all happy, but the actual transaction situation is not so optimistic. "Tongxiang silkworm farmers said so. It is only in these few days that the Spring Breeze in Zhejiang Province began to be acquired. Before that, Guangxi has already entered two batches, and the preliminary purchase price is basically above 36 yuan/kg. Therefore, when the price of the new price of 30 yuan/kg was issued by Zhejiang Xinyi, it attracted many saliva. The price of western silkworm farmers shouted too much.

However, according to the author and the silk silk business people to talk about understanding, the price of the new mallet should be a reasonable price of 30 yuan / kg to 36 yuan / kg, the low can not be broken 24 yuan / kg - and then lower the damage farmers damage mulberry. If the high level exceeds 40 yuan/kg, it will have a fatal impact on the downstream and far-month markets - this has been confirmed in 2011.

Then, if we look at it like this, the price of new products at this stage is actually in a reasonable state. Of course, at this stage, the market for crickets is still weak, which is particularly unfavorable to silkworm farmers. In terms of delaying the production of raw silk in the downstream, some companies proposed that the current price of reeling silk should be between RMB 300,000 and 300,000 per ton in the current period. After all, the current costs are rising. Multi-ten thousand yuan / ton price is not the same language.

However, why has the silk market been controversial in the past two years? The most important reason is that price fluctuations are excessive. For this year, the reeling spot market experienced a lot of turmoil. From the price of 300,000 yuan/tonne in the new city at the beginning of the year, it broke through 330,000 yuan/tonne in early April. This fluctuation was enough to make everyone reeling. . However, after entering mid-April, the price of silk reels began to fall sharply until May 31, when the average spot price of domestic 3A-class commodity seizures dropped to around RMB 315,000/t.

Comparing the prices of new cities at the beginning and the present, the overall price of silk in China this year still rises. However, it is noteworthy that today's 315,000 yuan / ton does not seem to be the bottom price, from the trend of monitoring the business community, the price curve is still in a downward state, the market to accelerate the weak consolidation.

The reeling market is still looking at the decline in the consumer silk market this time. It is the first straight price drop since the new city, and the duration has exceeded one month. What is even more serious is that this decline has not been changed.

Looking at the decline in prices during this period, there are several reasons: First, the impact of new listing, the impact of the new 茧 首 bear the brunt of the impact of this trip, the first in the early Guangxi new 茧 first listed, and the high price was once close to 40 yuan / Kg, when Xinyi was just listed, it really added a fire to the silk market. The new quality is good, and the thin and the expensive, resulting in a slight increase in raw silk prices. Not long after, however, with the batch listing of Xinyi in the Guangxi area, the quality of enamel declined, and the quantity increased rapidly. As a result, the purchase price of Xinyi quickly fell and passed, and raw silk began to decline in price.

The second is sluggish consumption. Silk consumption has not been warm in the past two years, mainly because of the influence of European and American economies. Silk is a high-end product, and most of the silk products exported by China are consumed by European and American developed countries. The economic contraction restricts its consumption, and domestic consumption has not improved, which restricts the development of the domestic silk industry. This is also the market for silk products. The crux of the weakness after falling prices last year.

The third is the recent economic factors. It is undeniable that May is a turbulent month. Under the influence of Xinyi, the market for silk reeling has seen a weak correction. In May, when the crisis in the Eurozone reemerged, Greece may withdraw from the Eurozone. These external macro factors will quickly affect the international market, and will seriously impact domestic commodities. In the market, almost all the commodity markets in May were weaker. This is a debilitating situation for the reeling market. Therefore, since late May, the reeling market has once again become quagmire.

In order to reproduce the splendor of the silk industry, in the absence of foreign consumption, stimulating domestic consumption should be said to be the ultimate best strategy.