Exchange rate rises and hurts foreign trade companies

In August, the *** trod against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, even breaking several gates, entering the "6.3" era. On the 16th, the exchange rate of *** against the US dollar was reported at 6.3925, a record high since the exchange rate was changed five consecutive trading days. On the 17th, the US dollar reported 6.3996 yuan to ***, which was a 71 basis point lower than the previous trading day. On the 18th, the exchange rate of *** against the US dollar was reported at 6.3942, and it was picking up again.

One side is the continuous appreciation of ***, while the Other side is a tight-tight nerve of foreign trade companies have "cry". The Economic Herald reporter interviewed several export companies on two consecutive days and found that in order to successfully “war” the exchange rate risk, in addition to adopting technical means such as early settlement of foreign exchange, it still needs “multi-legged walks” to plan a transition or set up factories overseas.

The zero-profit risk emerged as the Fed prolonged the ultra-low interest rate policy and the turmoil in the European and US financial markets. At the time of the turmoil in the US and European financial markets, the *** exchange rate witnessed dramatic and dramatic increases. At present, China's exports are still dominated by low-end products with a 3%-5% profit margin. *** A 1 percentage point increase in value means that the profits of related companies will be reduced by 1 percentage point.

Wang Yumei, deputy general manager of Shandong North Home Textiles Co., Ltd., said that its products are mainly exported to the United States, and all orders are settled in US dollars. “Because orders for export are generally signed on a one-year basis, with the continuous rise of *** against US dollar exchanges this year, so far, orders for the past year have caused a loss of about 1 million yuan to the company. The next time a new order is signed, By the end of October this year, the company will renegotiate with foreign companies, considering three major factors: rising prices of raw materials, rising labor costs and the appreciation of the exchange rate of ***, in an effort to raise the unit price.”

Regarding whether it is possible to fight for the settlement with ***, Wang Yumei stated that because the importers in the United States are large-scale retail enterprises, it is difficult to make concessions during negotiations, so settlement by *** is basically an “impossible completion”. Task."

Wang Shibao, director of the office of Shandong Huasheng Foreign Trade Co., Ltd., has been paying close attention to changes in the exchange rate recently. He told the Herald reporter that this year’s escalation in the value of the renminbi caused the company’s production costs to rise and its profits to decrease. This has caused the company to face a great deal of exports. difficult. “Especially orders that are delivered after 3 months and forward orders are under greater pressure due to the still bullish exchange rate.”

According to its introduction, the profit of the company’s products for export is between 5% and 6%. With the appreciation of ***, the product profits have been reduced step by step and even face the risk of “zero profit”. "Whether it can make profit depends on the future trend of the exchange rate." Wang Shibao said frankly, from a settlement point of view, after all, is still the buyer's market, the company did not consider any additional transaction with the buyer on the appreciation of the ***. Terms. "It is not easy to put forward additional clauses and it is not easy for buyers to accept additional clauses."

Faced with this situation, Wang Shibao said that at present, he can only negotiate with the buyer to request early delivery, or try to increase the price of the order at the time of delivery, so as to restore some of the losses as much as possible. However, in his view, the loss that these means can recover is compared with the impact of the appreciation of the ***.

In response, Li Ming, general manager of Qingdao Runsheng Jiahe International Trade Co., Ltd. expressed his worries: “Orders to foreign countries will be more prudent and not as hastily as previous orders. The key moment is to be conservative. In the situation where space is getting smaller and smaller, the order means risk.At present, many companies are facing the dilemma of 'long singles can't pick up and short ones'.'

Cross-border *** settlement is valued. In fact, in the first half of this year, a large number of foreign trade companies in coastal provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong were forced to appreciate the pressure of ***, and they did not dare to accept long singles and large orders, but instead compressed delivery time. In order to avoid exchange rate risks, there are also enterprises that reduce exchange rate risks through trade **, changes in settlement currency, and so on. However, the Herald reporter found that although many foreign trade companies have already had some psychological preparations for the trend of appreciation, they have taken measures such as early settlement of exchanges to avoid risks, but these technical means still cannot solve the fundamental problems.

Wang Yumei stated that in order to respond to the new round of *** appreciation, the company intends to intensify efforts to reduce production costs, including raw materials and labor costs, and increase production efficiency. At the same time, we will increase the proportion of domestic sales, aim at potential domestic markets at all levels, and timely adjust the sales ratio at home and abroad according to market changes.

In addition, due to the increase in the exchange rate in recent years and the fact that direct export methods are increasingly restricted by anti-dumping and trade barriers, many powerful foreign export enterprises are aware of the superiority of setting up factories overseas, and have shifted their positions. Move the factory overseas. Wang Yumei frankly stated that setting up factories overseas is a good way to avoid the risk of *** appreciation. “But both SMEs and SMEs face enormous cost pressures in terms of technology and human resources; SMEs lack the experience of overseas investment and management, and they often do not have the ability to set up factories overseas for the time being.”

Zhou Chun, general manager of Qingdao Zhongtian Knitwear Co., Ltd., said that in the near future, the company will plan to take steps to open up the domestic market. “Although it is difficult, we still have to try it and look for new opportunities in the crisis.”

For cross-border settlement, the above-mentioned members of the business community have stated that this approach is becoming more and more popular. "Exporting companies will undoubtedly need to strengthen the use of *** settlement to avoid risks, but companies must persuade foreign investors to accept *** settlement," said Wang Yumei.

What is gratifying is that when Vice Premier Li Keqiang attended the forum in Hong Kong on the 17th, he stated that he would expand the settlement of cross-border trade settlements to the whole country and launch trials of foreign capital banks to increase investment. This is a case for foreign trade companies. It is obviously a great advantage.

The impact of appreciation cannot be generalized. The appreciation of *** has also affected the export of domestic iron and steel enterprises. Gao Pengqiang, general manager of Shandong Boxing Hualu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., told the reporter: “Because of the recent record high exchange rate, the cost of steel production has been on an upward trend. As a result, the price of steel has risen to compete with steel exporters in other countries. It is bound to be at a disadvantage."

According to Gao Pengqiang, domestic steel demand is strong, but profits are thinner than export steel. The company's profit mainly depends on the export of steel. Therefore, the appreciation of *** has brought a greater negative impact on the company.

"With the appreciation of ***, the export price of domestic steel will rise. Under the fierce international competition environment, the cost advantage of China's export of steel has been weakened. The appreciation of *** means that the same US dollar will buy fewer Chinese products. The purchase intention of foreign buyers may be reduced. In this way, the domestic steel export will be suppressed.” Gao Pengqiang said that the international market has a slowly digesting process of increasing prices, and the domestic market will gradually pick up after digestion. However, in the long run, exports are still the lifeline of domestic steel companies.

Li Dezheng, a professor at the School of Finance at Shandong University of Finance and Economics and a leading commentator on the report, believes that in order to cope with the impact of the renminbi appreciation on exports, export companies should do their work in the following areas: First, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of business management. , Lower product cost levels; Second, the implementation of industrial upgrading, improve the technological content of products, increase the added value of products; Third, strive to use more settlement methods. In addition, we can actively explore non-US dollar export markets and strive to reduce the concentration of international trade.

Li Dezheng said that in terms of long-term trends, there is still room for greater appreciation of ***, and domestic small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises are still facing a severe export situation. However, in general, the impact of the appreciation of *** on the export of different products in our province is high or low, and cannot be generalized. “The appreciation of *** has little impact on the export business of those transport equipment and special machinery and equipment with core competitiveness, high market share, and strong market bargaining power; but for those technologies that are relatively simple The relatively sensitive sales of electronic products, especially household appliances, has a relatively large negative effect on the appreciation of ***. Compared with other industries, the appreciation of *** is expected to exert the greatest pressure on the export of textile and garment products in our province.

In addition, in the province's import and export trade, processing trade occupies a considerable share. The processing trade has the characteristics of “two ends out”, and the impact of the appreciation of the *** can largely offset each other. "At the same time, the appreciation of *** is conducive to curbing domestic inflation. As long as the cost growth rate of China is lower than the price increase rate of the United States, it will offset the partial impact of the appreciation of *** on the export of our province's products," said Li Dejun.