Since 2016, from the beginning of the year to the present, the market for cotton has undoubtedly revolved around the interpretation of the big logic of the dumping policy. Over-optimistic to over-pessimistic, the price rose from 9500 to 16,000, and it can be called a big ups and downs. At the beginning of the year, the market was too pessimistic about the state's dumping policy. The market fell and fell again. We saw the beginning of the year at 9500, and some even thought that it would reach 8,000 and ICE would reach 40 cents. At that time, the market believed that not only would casting a huge amount of deposits have a severe impact on the market, but it would also be very pessimistic about the consumption of China's textile industry. The smaller the amount of cotton used, the lower the overall pessimistic atmosphere of the market. Later, we saw that the entire international market did not show the same rate of decline. Our consumption is actually not decreasing but rising. Especially after the emergence of low-priced cotton in the late period, our prices are truly in line with international standards. Our business even ushered in a long-lost high profit, and the cotton yarn profits are all over 1,000 yuan. Today, we have reached the other extreme, that is to say, our cotton prices are rising at a price per day. Can cotton consumption continue to grow? Because of the delay in throwing storage time, and then we see the quantity and progress of throwing reserves. There is no demand or expectation from the market as promised. For example, if the turnover rate of throwing reserves of 30,000 tons per day reaches 70%, throwing reserves will increase. The result is that 30,000 tons are often not reached, and 100% of transactions are made every day, let alone incremental. From the beginning of interpretation of the policy, to the process of throwing away the deduction, it is the process of passing the spot. So far, we are still interpreting, implementing, expecting, and trading around the dumping policy. The rest are clouds. The insufficiency of the quantity of thrown reserves leads to a sharp increase in the enthusiasm for market purchases and can even be described as panic. The rapid rise in domestic cotton prices has led to a rise in prices of domestic cotton yarn. The increase in yarn prices has led to an increase in imported yarns, and the price of imported yarns has been strong, which has driven the price of cotton up. The process of this evolution has one or more of the following factors, but the decisive factor is the policy of reserve. So, this is the policy city. There may be various statements in the market, such as fund promotion, technical graphics, Indian cotton prices, USDA report, etc. All right, but the core logic is still thrown away. In other words, if the Reserve Reserve, as stated in the policy, guarantees 30,000 tons per day, and throws 50,000 tons if not enough, can you imagine the difference between our current market trading process? The answer is 100% sure. What is the result? The country’s fiscal revenue has increased. At the same time, it is also a double-edged sword. Domestic yarn mills have been hit hard, consumption has declined, and imported yarns have increased, which in turn has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of cotton production in countries around the world. Destocking has become hard and long. Do not think that stockpiling cotton stocks is a matter unimportant for finance. With a little bit of economic common sense, it can be calculated that the annual cost and quality variability will also be a waste of billions of dollars. income. Before 2012, cotton consumption accounted for more than 50% of the world's textile fibers, only about 27% currently. The cause of the sharp drop in cotton consumption was the 12-year high cotton price, which led to a large-scale substitution of man-made fibers for cotton. Good days for cotton are already running out. This round of cotton surged, the downstream response was very slow, and man-made fiber prices did not keep up with the price. Although it seems that there is not enough daily reserve, we have still thrown one million tons in two months and six months. In fact, one million tons, plus imports, plus this year's spot, is enough for two months of consumption, or even wealthy. But why has such panic generated? There may be two reasons for this. First, companies want to increase their inventory and deal with the next uncertain supply. Second, there are many state reserves of cotton that were taken by traders. In statistics, perhaps 40 percent of the proportion, except for a part of the textile mill on behalf of the shoot, the cotton trader will buy the cotton hedging will form their own inventory. If this commercial stock is, for example, 20%, then our company can really get the effective supply of cotton by 80%. What we are seeing now is the supply of the cotton market. It starts to look a bit inadequate. As the futures rocket soared and the spot price lags behind, the hedging basis is very attractive and getting better and better. Cotton traders have no reason not to intervene. However, the market has been rising and it has not been able to give this part of cotton the opportunity to flow into the market. This part of cotton has become a commercial inventory. We all know that there is no market that just rises or falls. Once falling, the futures will fall more than the spot price, and the basis will change, and this part of cotton will not enter the market. Therefore, the participation of cotton traders is also a double-edged sword, providing social financing, more after-sales service, and more importantly, the price will also be more competitive. The next step in how the market will go depends on the policy of dumping stockpiles. It is the policy city. Even in the future, in the years leading up to throwing storage, policies must be crucial. All other factors will be secondary. In turn, it can be seen that the impact of our policies on the international market is not small. Do not believe, our cotton is 80 cents, the international market can rise to 90 cents. That can only show that our cotton price is lower than the international market, that is, the import of 894,000 tons, we do not need. In the short term, the international market is not as good as it is. The market is expecting a qualitative change, and it has been waiting for a long time. The version of the appeal is full of content, and the result is beyond the imagination of ordinary people and continues to look forward to. At present, cotton has indeed entered a high-priced area, from the original 9500 to the recent 16,000, which has risen by nearly 70%, but the price will certainly restrain consumption to a certain extent. Going upwards is certainly not as powerful as it used to be. However, the ups and downs do not depend on the simple analysis of the fundamentals in the market. They all say that it is a policy city. Whether the policy is adjusted and adjusted determines the future market trend. Without any adjustment, it is not easy to say how much the market has risen. Because demand exceeds supply, and tense stocks are not met, there is always a certain amount of consumption on the market that is rigid and cannot be without cotton. It is necessary to buy these cotton. It must be the highest bidder. Got it. Expectations of policy adjustments, the industry’s summed up demands are so few. One is to reduce the prescribed inspection rate and increase the number of products that can be listed on a daily basis. The second one is to extend the time for dumping from the end of August to the end of September or longer. The third is that the cotton outside the public loan allowance (which differs significantly from the test results of the current year, not necessarily poor cotton) is to be auctioned out, thereby increasing the supply. In fact, there is still a kind of appeal, that is, requiring the cotton trader to participate in the reserve in a short time. In this case, an effective shoot-and-store mechanism can directly interface with the factory. To sum up, in light of the big logic and roots, the market has risen or fallen in price today. It does not depend on a simple fundamental analysis. In the following period, can there be a policy adjustment to allow more cotton supply to flow into the consumer market? This is a big logic for us to look at the market. Whether it will change or not, it may exceed our assumptions, and does not require any explanation or justification. It only hopes that we will not "cut the cabbage" three or five times. At the same time, there is reason to believe that all aspects of the government are not blind to the various phenomena, difficulties and demands on our current market. They are also actively working to find some solutions, but the government’s behavior is not as simple as we think. Changes in policy require the consensus of multiple departments and approval by higher authorities. Pc Blue Light Glasses,Cp Blue Light GlassesBlue Light Blocking Glasses,Anti Blue Light Glasses Wenzhou 101 optical Co. Ltd , https://www.101optical.com
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