March 2011 Quotes from the silk market: price shocks in spring

India's new fiscal year budget was released, and raw silk import tariffs fell to 5%, causing the Indian silk industry to become chaotic and even silkworm farmers committing suicide; 3.11 Japan's 9.0-magnitude earthquake triggered the tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear crisis; multinational countries led by France Armed forces interfered in Libya; March of 2011 was indeed a spring of trouble, and the human world was facing a severe test. In the same way, the silk industry in March is also facing the left. To the right? The difficulties are also the key month for the reeling market.

India lowered import tariffs to stimulate raw silk limit

Indian Finance Minister Mukherjee proposed to reduce the raw silk tariff from 30% to 5% when the Diet made the 2011-2012 budget report on February 28. The clause on the reduction of tariffs in the Budget has aroused greater fluctuations in the price of tussah silk between China and India. From the perspective of international learning, the importing country’s reduction of import tariffs on goods should lead to the export of such goods. The price of prices fell. India's starting point for lowering tariffs is to reduce the pressure on raw materials prices to manufacturers, lower the cost of silk products, and save the domestic silk industry, especially the family-owned textile industry, in distress.

However, when the news was announced, the price of domestic raw silk was still greatly stimulated. The price of the stock was once brought to a daily limit and approached the highest price of 400,000 yuan. In contrast to the Indian market, once news that the prices of Indian silk reels fell sharply, the price of silkworm cocoons fell by more than 50%, the livelihood of the silkworm farmers was in trouble, and even a suicide tragedy occurred. The Indian silkworm farmers held demonstrations. However, the government has not changed the meaning of this decision. Although 10% of the clothing excise tax was strongly opposed by the apparel industry, the government took some compromise measures to reduce the 10% garment consumption tax to 8.5%.

Lowering the import tariff of raw silk is in line with the needs of the development of the Indian silk industry and is the only way for India to develop its own silk industry. Although both China and India have experienced more extreme reactions after the announcement, it is believed that this is only temporary. After constant collision and adjustment of trade between the two sides, prices will return to a relatively balanced point. The industry still outweighs the disadvantages.

Natural disasters and riots in the area have little effect on the reeling

3.11 The 9.0-magnitude earthquake of Japan and the tsunami and nuclear leakage accidents caused a great impact on the economy of Japan and the world. The industry is also worried that it will have an impact on the silk industry. According to customs statistics, China exported 260 million U.S. dollars of real silk commodities to Japan in 2010, which accounted for 7.98% of China's total export market, ranking fourth in the export market. However, according to the First Financial Daily, the Japanese textile industry is mainly concentrated in the southwestern region. Therefore, the earthquake that occurred in northeastern Japan currently has little impact on the textile industry.

The silk industry conference is good

March was the key time for the silk industry to work. National and local silk associations and related departments held frequent meetings to analyze the development of the silk industry and to study how to lay out new jobs. On March 20, 2011, the general election meeting and cum analysis meeting of Guangxi Lisi Silk Industry Association was held; on March 21, 2011, the China Silk Association held the secretary general (director, manager) of the silk associations (companies) of all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country. ) Working seminar; On March 30th, the 2011 National Symposium on Cocoon Sowing and Drying was held in Xiamen.

During these meetings, the delegates attending the conference were cautiously optimistic about the development of the industry this year. The delegates conducted in-depth discussions on the objective factors facing the development of the silk industry. Li Chaosheng, deputy director of the State Silk Reeling Office, analyzed at the meeting that this year, opportunities and challenges coexist in the silk industry: On the one hand, the world economy recovers, the domestic economy develops steadily, domestic demand expands, the competitiveness of silk companies increases, the strength increases, and the ability to resist risks increases. . On the other hand, the international economic situation is complex. The economic crisis continues to have a deeper impact. The advantages of the labor force in Southeast Asia's emerging countries have increased. India's tax cuts have affected China's silk exports, and domestic production and operating costs have continued to rise. In addition, Deputy General Manager Tangsi of Zhongsi Corporation reviewed the basic operations of the silk industry in 2010 and analyzed the market situation this year. He said that last year, the country’s silkworm cocoon resumed its growth, exports continued to decline, domestic sales grew strongly, and the basic balance of cocoon supply remained tight. He believes that the price of reeling silk this year is expected to be relatively stable, and the export situation is expected to continue to improve.

Guangxi's spring silkworm delayed the production of Hainan Chunyu acquisition 35 yuan/kg

If it is said that January and February are the spring flood seasons, then in March, the production of the spring flood has been basically clear and clear. Due to this year's unusually low temperature weather, the mulberry fields in Guangxi's silkworm area have grown slowly, and the release time for spring silkworm eggs has been delayed by about 20 days. It is expected that the spring quails in Guangxi will be listed in mid-May, which is equivalent to the production of a small batch of spring quails in Guangxi this year. In addition to postponing delays, the production situation in the spring flood season in Guangxi is basically stable, and the rainfall is abundant, basically eliminating the drought's enthusiasm for mulberry fields. The overall situation of silkworm cocoon production has been guaranteed.

According to the Hainan Daily News, at the end of March, the first spring batches of Hainan Qiongzhong Miao Autonomous County were listed. The purchase price exceeds 35 yuan/kg. Although the price of 35 yuan/kg silkworm cocoon does not represent the price of the national Spring Cocoon listing, nor does it represent the year-round price of silk cocoon, the first batch of spring cocoon in Hainan set the tone for the high price of this spring.

The macroeconomic environment is still not improving and inflationary pressures continue

The world economy, especially in developed countries in Europe and America, is still at a stage of slow recovery. The major earthquakes in Japan and many countries’ military intervention in Libya have caused the world’s economic recovery to cast a shadow of uncertainty, mainly on the United States and Europe. The test of Chinese silk in the Japanese market is far from over.

At the same time, despite frequent outflows by government departments, they have launched heavy blows to curb food prices and combat inflation. However, from the "price surge" recently unveiled, grain prices appear to have been steadily rising. To manage inflation, the government still has a long way to go. Some experts predict that the CPI may reach a peak of 5% in March. If the CPI exceeds 5% and hit a new high in November last year, the country will use interest rate hikes. Before and after the Ching Ming Festival, the central bank may raise interest rates again.

In March, various factors such as Chunchan production, foreign trade, exports, macroeconomics, etc. began to appear clueless and clear. In March, the Guangxi market saw the reeling of high-end consolidations and waited for opportunities to increase. At the end of February, when India announced that it had lowered its basic customs duties on raw silk imports to 5%, the first trading day in March, raw silk soared and approached the daily limit. After several consecutive days of strong gains, it appeared to be under-supported and weak. It began to experience a correction and continued to wear the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages. In mid-March, the market formed a phased bottom. The September contract fell to a minimum of 353,500. However, with the delay in the timing of the release of silkworms in Guangxi, the strong export of silk garments in January and February and the release of industrial silk yarn data have made the market trend clear. The prices of silk yarns have once again waited for an opportunity to regain multiple daily averages and continued to recover. At the end of the month, it rose to a new stage high. The MACD's weak state has also begun to change, and the desire for price upside is still very strong.

Although the current high price of silk is very high, the unfavorable factors cannot be ignored. The export of silk products faces many uncertainties. In an environment where the country is determined to control the development of inflation, high prices face the possibility of being regulated. At the same time, although this year's spring silkworm species are delayed, it does not mean that the possibility of increased silkworm cocoon production can be ruled out. (Crown Wire Trading Network) (E04)

Christmas Gifts

Ceramic Money Box,High Quality Money Box,Money Box

Dehua Worthful Ceramic Co., Ltd. , http://www.qzceramic.com