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In 2014, the apparel apparel and textile industry as a whole is expected to show a weak recovery trend, grasping the trend changes and growth certainty. Two main investment lines: clothing and apparel go to basic digestion, focusing on companies whose demand has bottomed out and take the lead in adjustment; textile and garment invisible The champion continues to benefit from the export recovery and capacity expansion, and the growth is steady.
Reasons Clothing Apparel: Public consumption is picking up, inventory is basically digested, and O2O and direct operation bring optimization of models.
1) The growth of the mass consumer market bottomed out. In 2013, the scale of China's garment industry is expected to increase by 7.8% year-on-year, and it is expected that the growth rate will rebound slightly to 8.2% in the next year. It is expected that the luxury market will continue to be more likely to consolidate at the bottom due to slowing domestic demand and policy factors.
2) In the next year, more sub-industry trade fairs or sales have seen a narrowing or slight increase in the decline, and the next step is to focus on changes in terminal demand. Next year home textiles, sports, women's and leisure orders have recovered, but terminal demand will diverge; men's clothing will continue to adjust, the decline in same-store or orders has narrowed, the performance of dominant companies will be better than the industry; footwear has recovered slightly.
3) The rise of the mobile internet and the concept of O2O proposes a counter-attack opportunity for traditional brand companies.
Companies with strong brand power, online and offline same prices, and full control of open channels are expected to achieve market share expansion and return to growth.
Textiles and garments: The invisible championship advantage will continue. Recovery of overseas demand and expansion of production capacity will contribute to the growth of performance. Construction companies in Southeast Asia are expected to benefit from TPP.
Earnings Forecast and Valuation The A-share key recommendations: Meibang Garments (14.2x), Fu Anna (14.1x), Luthai (7.3x) and Youngor (6.7x).
The H-Shares key recommendation: Shenzhou International (13.6x), Pacific Textiles (11.6x), Anta (17.7x), Lilang (10.0x), Belle (13.9) and IT (11.7) need to keep track of trend changes.
risk:
The overall consumption slowed down and raw material prices fluctuate drastically.